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Best Online Casinos for Beginners

February 15th, 2008

With over 1,700 online casino sites currently taking bets, it is easy for a new comer to feel overwhelmed. To a novice, sites may seem unsafe and confusing. However, with a little guidance, this is easily overcome.

There are actually many advantages to gambling online compared to traditional on-site gambling. Online casinos are quite convenient and offer 24 hours/day access from the comfort of your home. Further, there is much less pressure when betting from home, as gamblers can take as much time as needed to make bets and devise strategies. This is particularly helpful for beginners who often find other players intimidating and Vegas-style casinos overwhelming. Beginners can also hone their skill using fake money until they feel confident enough to begin gambling with actual money.

Now that your friends have talked you into it, it’s time to choose a site. First, you need to decide what games you want to play, as most sites offer a wide variety. Most gamblers begin with blackjack or video poker, as the payout ratio ranges from 98 percent to 100 percent. This means that you have the best chance of winning, or at least breaking even.

The following are a few tips on selecting an online gambling site:

1. When deciding on a website, check to see what type of license the site has. The most reputable sites will have both a software and a jurisdiction license. The presence of a software license (all online casinos use third-party game software) confirms the fact that the website has spent a lot of money and signed a long-term operation contract. These sites are stable businesses that won’t vanish once you deposit your money. The jurisdiction license allows the country of jurisdiction to frequently audit the site to make sure money is exchanged honestly and ethically.

2. Safety is an obvious concern when you gamble online. Since you will be exchanging money and providing sensitive, personal information, you should be certain that a site is respectful and protective of your information. Make sure that the site you choose uses 128-bit SSL encryption, as this is almost impenetrable to would-be hackers. Along these same lines, you should carefully examine the site’s privacy policy to assure that your information will not be shared with other parties. The last thing you want is to be spammed!

3. Be sure that the site you choose has a payment method with which you are comfortable. Common methods are FirePay, NeTeller, bank transfers, and credit card transactions. Be sure to find out how quickly you can make withdrawals and how quickly you may receive winnings. Less reputable sites will stall during this processes in the hope that you will gamble your winnings away before they are withdrawn.

4. Find out how long a particular site has been in business. As a general rule of thumb, sites that have been in existence for at least five years are reputable.

If you follow these tips, you should get off to a good start. Be sure to ease into online gambling. Start with small bets until you feel comfortable and then proceed with moderation. Good luck!

Tom Shannahan has been playing poker since he was 16. He grew up watching his father play with friends once a week. He currently writes part time for Pokerlistings.com where you can find more great information about Poker Tournaments and Online Poker Rooms.

Gambling Industry Expanding And Players Who Use Gambling Strategies

January 29th, 2008

What does the word “Gamble” mean to you?

For the average player the word “gambling” means much more than a risky bet. It can stand for just about anything from vacationing, Las Vegas, and even fun. Devised earlier than 3000 years ago, gambling was well documented to have existed in many civilizations. The games we know today are the incarnations of former ones, with adjusted rules. For the length of time gambling was invented, players have always seemed obsessed with trying to use various gambling strategies for games. However, Casinos have always had the mathematical advantage along with an adamant need for stopping the smart player. It has forever become a vicious cycle of exploitive players vs. casinos catching up.

Today, gambling doesn’t even need to be played at Las Vegas or any other casino chains.

Now for those of you who live under rocks or live in a time warp may say, “Wait….outside of Casinos?”

Well you see…

1. In-flight Gambling: Eflyte has been developing in-flight gaming and continues to spread its influence on many airlines. Currently they have the world’s first Multiplayer Poker Tournament along with over 60 games for airplanes. Ceo of Ryanair will also attempt use in-flight gaming by next year. Now casino gambling may be common on cruises, but it’s a breakthrough for airlines.

2. Mobile phones can also be used to buy lotteries and sports betting nowadays. If certain restrictions are lifted, it could even mean much more growth in its use.

3. Internet Casinos are also another medium in which gambling doesn’t seem to stop growing; despite being forced to open offshore from the US. This isn’t necessarily bad of course.

The gambling industry is on a growing trend and it doesn’t seem to stop anywhere in sight. Of course, this naturally means that more and more people will be hooked and continue losing to the casinos.

Even the strategic players are screwed over at times with certain technologies being developed. Some casinos even started to implement tracking devices in chips to catch card counters. Those days of Ken Uston and counting machines are getting harder to come by since casinos already know about the gambling strategies used. New mediums such as electronic gambling can stop card counting dead in it’s track.

Winning through strategy can still be done, just as internet marketing can still make some rich. Yet being particular savvy to news and gambling strategy alike can immensely help the professional gambler. That is, unless gambling is only treated as a simple recreation. Otherwise, the best a player can do is to read up on forums and reference news sources for any changes in their gambling strategy.

Owner of a gambling strategy site known as http://www.gambling-wizard.com. Covering gambling news, blackjack, casinos, sports betting, and more.

FOOTBALL BETTING BASICS

December 21st, 2007

FOOTBALL BETTING BASICS

Welcome to the first in a series of articles that will examine
some of the finer points in sports betting for newcomers to the
idea of trying to get the edge on the bookie. Many of the ideas
will be applicable to other sports, but we’ll be focusing on
football. Much of this stuff will be old-hat to old-timers but I
hope many people will get at least a few ideas from the articles.

***This series of article was written for Bettorsworld by long
time contributor “Shawn”.

—————

This Week: Q & A ABOUT “THE LINE”

1. “What the Line means - and what it doesn’t.”

Suppose you have a local bookie who lets you bet the line
printed in your local newspaper’s sports section. On the
Wednesday before the NFL season kicks off you open the paper and
under “NFL Lines” you see:

(Favorites listed first, home team in CAPS)

JETS 6.5 Patriots

OK so what does this mean? This means you can call your bookie
and bet $11 on the Jets. If the Jets win by 7 points or more you
get the $11 back plus $10 more. If the Jets win by 6 or less, or
the Patriots win, you lose the $11. Or, if you like the
Patriots, you can bet $11 on them. If they win, or lose by six
or less, you cash in, getting your $11 back plus $10 more. If
the Jets win by 7 or more, your money on the Patriots is gone.
Of course you can bet more than $11 to win $10. You can bet $55
to win $50, $110 to win $100, or more. Generally you risk $11
for every $10 you want to profit…that’s the standard and it
varies little.

A line is also called a “point spread” or “spread”.

So what does it REALLY mean? The number 6.5 is the head start in
points the line-maker gives the Patriots. He thinks, and your
bookie is very much hoping, that if that’s the head start given
the Patriots for wagering purposes, half of the bookie’s
clients’ dough will be bet on the Jets and the other half on the
Patriots.

Why is this important? The smart bookie doesn’t want to
gamble-he wants a sure thing: a guaranteed profit from his
customers. Consider the simplest case where a bookie has just
two bettors, you and me, and this number of 6.5 does its job.
You bet $11 on the Jets and I bet $11 on the Patriots. One of us
wins. Let’s say it’s me…I hate the Jets. I get my $11 back,
plus $10 of your money. The extra $1 you put in stays in the
bookmaker’s pocket as his small, guaranteed profit (it’s called
“vig” or “juice”).

What does the Line NOT mean? It does not mean, under any
circumstances, that oddsmakers think the Jets will win by about
6 or 7 points. It’s your job to predict who will win and by how
much…the line-maker doesn’t want to do your job for you. He
works for the bookies. He and the bookies don’t care who wins or
loses or by how much-they just want the same amount of cash on
each side so the bookies can get juice. The line-maker tries to
come up with the handicap of points that will put half the
public’s money on the Jets, and half on the Patriots. As long as
the money is split evenly, the bookie “wins” in his own way, and
the result of the game is of no importance to him.

2. “Whoa. The Line is different today from yesterday. What’s
with that?”

So the next day in the paper, it’s now

Jets 7 Patriots

instead. Now if you like the Jets they’ve got to win by 8 or
more for you to cash in. If you like the Patriots, they can win
or lose by 6 or less and you’ll win. (If the game lands on a Jet
win by exactly 7, anybody who bet while the line was 7 just has
their money refunded…you get the line at the time you bet,
even if it changes later.)

The Line moved because the line-maker consulted with some big
sports books and the money wasn’t balanced when the number was
6.5-there was more coming in on the Jets than the Patriots. So
the line-maker and bookies changed the number to try to
encourage more bets on the Patriots to even things up and get
that juice.

(Line movement is complicated and these are only the basics.
Detailing line movements and other things a bookie can do to
“even up” the betting would take pages. One thing that the
bookie could do instead of moving the line is to say “It’s still
6.5 but Jets bettors have to lay $11.50 to win $10 and Patriots
backers can lay only $10.50 to win $10.” This is called “moving
the money instead of the line”. Think about this one. It’s
especially common when the line is exactly 3 points, a football
winning margin that actually occurs a lot.)

3. “Why do different places have different Lines on the same
game?”

Suppose you have access to several bookies (this is a good idea
and we’ll talk about it in a later article) and you find they
have different lines, like:

Bookie A: Jets by 6.5 (from the Newspaper)

Bookie B: Jets by 6

Bookie C: Jets by 7

Canbet: Jets by 6.5

Victor Chandler: Jets by 7

Bowmans: Jets by 6.5

Everybody but the bookie who blindly follows the paper is trying
to balance the Jets bets with the Patriots bets. Maybe Bookie B
is in Boston so he is a little lopsided on people betting for
the Patriots — so he’s trying to entice Jets bettors to step
up. Maybe Bookie C is in the Bronx (so he has too much money on
the Jets at 6.5), and maybe Victor Chandler’s clients bet
favorite teams a lot instead of underdog teams, so they’re
looking for more money on the Patriots right now.

In the above example if you like the Jets you’ll take your
business to Bookie B because if the Jets win by exactly 7 you’re
a winner, and if the Jets win by exactly 6, it’s the only shop
at which you don’t lose. If you like the Patriots, in this
example Bookie C or Victor Chandler are the places to play
because the Patriots get more points as a head-start there. More
on line-shopping in a few weeks.

http://www.bettorsworld.com >

poker Betting Moves

December 20th, 2007

If a player wants a call, he’ll be very careful not to frighten you. In players mind, overly forceful or exaggerated betting moves will make his hand appear strong.

The key to interpreting your opponent’s hand by the manner he bets is not so hard. If the move is too dynamic, you should suspect weakness. If it’s quiet and smooth suspect strength.

When a player couples his wager with the words, “I’ bet,” or something similar in an optimistic tone, there’s a good chance he is weak or bluffing. If he says nothing his bet is a negative tone, figure him for a strong hand.

In a sense, the whole science of interpreting betting moves run contrary to what you might at first expect. You’ve already learned that players who are bluffing or weak often try to blend it with tablecloth after betting. Then shouldn’t you expect a player who’s bluffing to bet in a very sedate manner so as not to call attention to himself.

No. The reason is that bluffers try to disappear only after their bet. At that times they’re not required to do anything but sit and wait their fate. While waiting, they try do nothing that might trigger your call. But while betting, they don’t have luxury of doing nothing. No matter what they might desire, they know theey’re sure to call attention to themselves while placing the bet. Hat’s why they revert to trying to disguise their hand and strong when weak.

Betting with extra emphasis is an attempt to appear strong. It means weak. Betting casually is an attempt to appear weak. It mean strong. A casual bet is frequently accompanied by other overt signs of pretended weakness: shrugging,sighing and negative tones of voice.

Please also view us bonus code full tilt poker and more stuff.

Tournament History Worth Considering

November 27th, 2007

Before filling out your tournament bracket it may be worth your while to take a look at some of the history of the NCAA Tournament. Let’s begin with the past 5 Champions as often times looking back too far can be a hindrance. Three of the last 5 Champions have come out of the ACC with North Carolina beating Illinois last year, Maryland defeating Indiana in 2002, and Duke winning over Arizona in 2001. Before North Carolina reemerged as National Champions last season the Big East collected titles in 2003 and 2004 with Syracuse and UConn. Picking an ACC team or a Big East team should be a safe bet to win it all.

But don’t rule out the Big 10. A Big 10 team has made the title game 3 of the last 6 years with Michigan State winning it all in 2000. In a year when the Big 10 was the strongest conference from top to bottom, a Big 10 team could be strong pick to win it all. If we are using history, we can rule out the Big 12. The Big 12 has only had one team make the championship game in the last 5 years with Kansas losing to Syracuse in 2003 and Kansas could be the Big 12’s best chance this year, but it’s hard to know how such a young team will react under the pressure of the NCAA Tournament. I’m ruling a Big 12 champion out.

When you’re picking your Final Four, you may want to strongly consider having a 3 seed, as 3 seeds have made it to the Final Four 3 of the last 5 years with a pair of 3 seeds making it in 2003. Including 2 seeds in your Final Four is a must, as at least one 2 seed has made the Final Four 4 of the last 5 NCAA Tournaments. Surprisingly 5 seeds aren’t bad picks for the Final Four either as three 5 seeds have made the National Semifinals 3 of the last 6 years including Michigan State who made it as a 5 seed a year ago. The trouble with taking the 5 seed out is risking the chance that they could be knocked out in the first round by the infamous 12 seed pulling off an upset.

All 5 of the schools with the most national titles are in this year’s tournament field. UCLA leads the group with 11 all-time titles and the Bruins are enjoying their highest seed in a number of years. Kentucky and Indiana follow UCLA with 7 and 5 titles respectively, but with Indiana as a 6 seed and Kentucky as an 8, I don’t see either team adding to their totals this year. North Carolina and Duke cap off the top 5 with 4 national championships for the Tarheels and 3 for the Blue Devils. It could be the most storied teams who have the best chance to win the 2006 Tournament. UCLA, Duke, and North Carolina have legitimate shots at cutting down the nets in Indianapolis.

Notice that we haven’t talked about any 4 seeds in our list of Champions. Although Louisville made it to the Final Four as a 4 seed last season, 4 seeds aren’t safe bets. In fact a 13 seed defeating a 4 has been the big first round shocker over the last 7 years. Oklahoma pulled off an upset over Arizona back in 1999 as a 13 seed. In 2001 a pair of 13 seeds defeated 4’s, and unlucky 13’s were able to knock off 4 seeds in 2002, 2003, and 2005 as well. You may want to strongly consider finding a 13 over a 4 upset in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

History doesn’t always repeat itself, but I think these are a few strong leads to consider.

Jimmy Boyd is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Jimmy_Boyd.htm

Picking the Top Sportsbooks by sportsbooksgames.com

November 22nd, 2007

Picking the Top Sportsbooks by sportsbooksgames.com

Personally, I can’t think of anything better than watching
sports and making money. If you are an avid sports fan and have
been trying to find a place to do your sports betting, look no
further than the search engine on your computer. Top online
sportsbooks have been around for several years now, but how do
you find an honest sportsbook you can trust that offer the best
odds. Although you should perform your own due diligence in
finding a online sportsbook that is both reputable and customer
service oriented, Top
Sportsbooks have taken much of the leg work out by selecting
the top sportsbbooks in the industry. To make a profit at these
top sportsbooks, you should take a disciplined and long-term
approach. One thing to take into account is that the bookmaker
is simply a facilitator whose intent is to level the odds so
that he makes a small profit no matter which team wins. If too
much money is wagered on one team, the bookmaker will adjust the
point spread to encourage sports betting on the other team. This
ensures him of making a profit. In order for you to make a
profit, you only need a very small edge over the long term. A
profitable handicapper hits at only a rate of 53% or more games
against the spread.

These are the points to follow when pick a top online
sportsbook: 1. They have several years of successful operation.
The sportsbook has a reputation that has been proven over time
and not in claims in their advertisements.

2. They have convenient the rapid availability of funds. They
have speedy transfers and offer same day payouts.

3. They have first rate customer service. They treat clients
with respect and resolve disputes in a consistent and fair
manner. They have professional, courteous, English speaking
staff, as well as customer friendly policies.

4. They have the latest computer technology. The speed of final
results posted, and the accuracy of the bet taking should be
important features in the sportsbook the you choose.

5. They have Las Vegas style rules and regulations. Be sure to
check the fine print on parlays, teasers, propositions, and
other wagers. .

6. Check on negative reports from industry watchdogs. You can
look at reports of problem companies from the Offshore Gaming
Association (OSGA.com)

7. The sportsbook offers good bonuses and incentives to sign up.
Most sportsbooks offer bonuses when you sign up the first time.
Be careful for the sportsbooks that offer the unbelievable bonus
deals. They may not be able to stay around for the long haul.

8. The sportsbook has available management. The general manager
or other management people is available for you to talk to. They
have enough clerks and supervisors working during the busy
periods. The sportsbook online betting capability doesn’t bog
down close to game time.

9. The hours of operation are flexible. The top sportsbooks are
open seven days a week, 365 days a year, 24 hours a day.

10. The sportsbook is legal in the country of operation. You
want to be sure that the online sportsbook is operating in a
legal jurisdiction so you can have some recourse. Look for
sportsbooks that are members of Offshore Gaming Association
(OSGA) or any other reputable association.

Online Casino - What Is It?

October 31st, 2007

Entertaining industry conquerors more and more space of our lives. Any inventions in any technical sphere of life attract those who are involved in entertainment business. Internet was not the exception.

Lots of offers concerning gambling and getting real money can be found in the virtual world. Casinos, lotteries, bingoes, sportsbooks: thats a small part of the sphere where one can get a lot pleasure and test the fate.

This article throws some light at one of the most wide-spread area of entertaining industry which is on-line casinos. The point is to show if that`s real.

More than 3000 international on-line casinos are located in the web. There are also some thousands of national on-line casinos. The main difference between them is the language of communication, which is more applicable for people of a definite country. Another important feature is the system of payment with the currency most suitable for the country.

Gamblers from some countries (Albania, Belarus, Hungary, Latvia, Russia, etc) are not welcome in some casinos. Why not all the international casinos accept the gamblers from this countries? In fact, casinos doesn`t make a difference in nationality of the gambler. All the gamblers are indentified by IP of the provider, which is a transfer for gambler in Internet. What is the problem of such countries for casinos managers? That`s a topic for another article and we will not dig this problem deep here. Besides, more than 2000 of international casinos provides one with the choice which can satisfy anyone.

Every casino provide a set of different games, bet limits and coefficients of payings. You can play one-on-one with the croupier or with gamblers from other countries, talking friendly meanwhile. One can choose a game which involves some certain people. One can also play for dealer against the other gamblers. There`s a great list of opportunities which are given by the on-line casinos.

The detailed list of different kinds of casinos, types of the games provided, bonuses for players, types of mone transfer used by casinos, various strategies of games, theory of gambling and more useful information can be found at http://www.icasinoclub.com.

There are some more questions which can arise from players, such as

is my winning payed?

do they play honestly?

and some others. The answers should be got concerning each on-line casino separately.

Different assotiations (such as Online Player Assotiation (OPA) and some others) are created to control the casino functioning. In case of an illegal action some measures are taken, including fines and even withdrawing franchisse.

A serious punishment for a casino is the publication of the fact of its failure in free sourses of information. The great competition among casinos together with such publication may cause the financial trouble for the owner of the business. With millions of dollars are involved in the foundation of the casino (the figure of $1 000 000 is a one usual to start an average business), not every casino can let any cheating in.

The information about various casinos is given at forums, devoted to this topic. Your opinion can be left there as well. There are private forums where professional gamblers exchange their opinions. As an open source http://www.icasinoclub.com/forum can be recommended. There you can get as much useful information as you need.

On-line casinos have their own andvantages in comparison with the real ones. Safety of your own home lets you think through and apply different possible tactical steps in quiet atmosphere with no fuss. There`s additional list of games which is come across in on-line casinos only.

There`re very impessive Jack Pots. The greatest one ($1 500 000) was won in the on-line casino. The usual sum for a winning is some hundred dollars, which are won regularly.

To try the game every casino provides new-comers with additional dibs called “bonus”. To bet on virtual money you are getting pleasure as well as a sum, which will be transferred to your plastic card or a bank account.

About The Author

Aleksei aka Lord Maverick (LM)

http://www.icasinoclub.com

Copyright 2004 LM All Rights Reserved.

You have permission to publish this article electronically or in print, in your Newsletter, on your website, or in your E-Book, as long as the author`s Resource Box is included with the article and all url`s are as hyperlinks.

Doc’s 2006 March Madness Preview: Washington D.C. Regio

October 28th, 2007

Scandal. Demagogic leaders. Unpredictability. Amazing inefficiency and ineffectiveness. Gratuitous nudity. Bad suits, worse accents, and more glad-handing than any Normal Human could stomach.

Yup, the teams that comprise the Washington, D.C. Region fit this town better than a Bill Clinton condom. Wait, he didn’t use condoms…

Here is one man’s look at the bracket that could bankrupt your stack quicker than the Republicans ripped through our budget surplus:

No. 1 Seed: Connecticut

My complaint against them is that they don’t have that go-to perimeter scorer that can hit a three, beat guys off the bounce and just create his own shot. You can say Rudy Gay, but he doesn’t have the demeanor and hasn’t proven himself. They still have the most talent and the best overall team. However, over the last two years Connecticut and North Carolina were locks entering the Big Dance. This year UConn is the clear favorite, but they are by no means a lock.

No. 2 Seed: Tennessee

Okay, because I take time to slam them further down in this column I’m going to accent the positive here. The Vols can score on anybody at any time. They average an absurd 81.3 points per game, which is ninth in the nation, and they shoot nearly 40 percent from behind the arc, 19th in the nation. Bruce Pearl gets my vote for Coach of the Year. And at a time when guard play is everything, C.J. Watson and Chris Lofton are as good as any pair in college hoops.

But there’s still no way they deserve this seed.

No. 3 Seed: North Carolina

No team had ever lost as much firepower and talent as the defending national champs. But Tyler Hansbrough has emerged as a force and the Tar Heels have remained prominent. However, I have said before that this is the time of year that I expect their youth to catch up with them. They are not going to walk through Murray State in Round 1, and they should definitely become George Mason fans. GM plays Michigan State, which would be a very tough second round match up for UNC. Let’s also not forget that before last season’s title, Roy Williams wasn’t exactly Mr. March.

No. 4 Seed: Illinois

Dee Brown has always been money in the Madness, and I would be surprised if his swan song wasn’t something sweet. They don’t have the guns to win it all, but there’s no way that they’re going to go quietly. Air Force is a tricky draw, but they should overpower the Falcons. After that, the chalk says Washington, and I expect them to control that one. But when it comes to a date with UConn, it’s not going to happen for Illinois.

No. 5 Seed: Washington

These guys are ridiculous. One second they look like a better-than-average club with one star (Brandon Roy) and some capable supports. The next they look like a JUCO team. They play Utah State, which is a team that defends very well and always manages to get good shots. If the Huskies survive they could face a very proud Illinois crew. A Sweet 16 berth would be akin to a national championship for these clowns. But the more likely scenario has them losing in one of those trademark 5-12 upsets.

Best first-round match up: No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Air Force

If you want to watch a clinic of how to run an offense, watch this game. These two are both extremely efficient and effective in their sets. The Illini have a huge advantage because of their superior athleticism and the inside-outside combo of James Augustine and Dee Brown. However, I don’t know if you can play the Experience Card with the Illini. This isn’t nearly the same team that went to the finals last year.

Best potential second-round match up: No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 5 Michigan State

Two public teams with recent NCAA titles could lock up in a marquee game on Sunday. North Carolina plays with more determination and heart, but Michigan State has a severe advantage in regards to tournament experience. Of course, I know this is a sucker bet. I’m positive of it. The Spartans have been a chump team all season (see: 13-17 ATS) and they don’t defend the perimeter (232nd in 3-point defense). They have little or no heart, and no depth off the bench. But precisely because it makes no sense, that’s why the Spartans have a great chance of winning.

Upset Alert (first round): No. 15 Winthrop vs. No. 2 Tennessee

No, this isn’t some knee-jerk reaction to the Vols being handed an undeserved No. 2 seed. Winthrop, which was a couple of ill-fated possessions away from beating Gonzaga last year, brought back 12 of its top 13 players and I’ve been touting them all year. Tennessee, much like the real volunteers in the South’s Civil War militia, doesn’t play any defense. They’re 312th in the country in field goal defense, 201st in rebounding, and have lost four of their last six outings. SEC teams have the worst first-round record of any of the Big Six conferences over the past five years (17-12). Also, Miss. St. in 2004, Florida in 2003, Alabama in 2002, and South Carolina in 1997 all failed to make it through opening weekend as a No. 2 seed.

Upset Alert (second round): Too many to choose from

There were a ton of potential upset games here (George Mason over UNC, MSU vs. UNC, Winthrop over Seton Hall, Utah State over Illinois). When things go awry in this tournament, it’s going to start right here in this bracket. There are a ton of landmines in our nation’s capitol. The largest potential buster is UAB over UConn. I don’t think it will happen, but that’s the one game that could crush office pools across the nation.

Dark Horse Teams: No. 12 Utah State and No. 13 Air Force

Because everyone has been trashing these two crews since the bracket was announced (the thugs from the Cincinnati’s team would roll down to Utah State for a drive by, but I don’t think they could find Utah on the map) one of them is going to win in the first round. It’s a lock. These guys aren’t dark horses because they’re going to make a run at the Final Four. They’re sleepers because they have the potential to snipe out a pair of teams (Washington, Illinois) that could’ve made a run.

Team That Makes Me Nervous: Michigan State

As you know, there are a lot of teams that make me nervous in this region. North Carolina is young. Washington is squirrelly. Kentucky is schizo. Tennessee is excitable. But Michigan State started the season in a lot of people’s top five and then went on to finish seventh (yes, seventh) in the Big 10. You know the talent is there, and Tom Izzo is an outstanding tourney coach, but this club is a real dicey bet. Paul Davis is a wet paper towel, and Shannon Brown and Maurice Ager are playing for the highlights. Not a winning formula.

Doc Moseman of Doc’s Sports is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Doc_Moseman.htm

Ness Notes (32-to-16)

October 22nd, 2007

Things happen quickly in the NCAA tournament. The tournament begins on Thursday and by Friday night, the field has been cut to 32 teams. By Sunday night, it’s down to just 16 teams with only 15 games remaining before the crowning of this year’s national champs!

Through the tournament’s first two days, all four No. 1 and No. 2 seeds advanced but few looked impressive in doing so. Top-seeds are now 88-0 since 1985 in the first round with No. 2 seeds upping their record to 84-4. However, Memphis, the lowest of the four No. 1 seeds (and the smallest favorite), was the only No. 1 seed to ‘cover’ a first round game, while UCLA was the lone No. 2 seed to cover its game.

That 2-6 ATS record drops No. 1 and No. 2 seeds to a very unimpressive 31-33 ATS mark the last eight years in the tournament’s first round, especially when it’s compared to their gaudy 63-1 SU mark!

The lowest-seed to pull an upset in round one was Northwestern State (14), which beat No. 3 Iowa 64-63 on Friday, as a seven-point underdog. No. 13 Bradley’s win over No. 4 Kansas 77-73 on Friday night, was the opening round’s second-biggest upset (Bradley opened an eight-point dog and closed around 6 1/2).

Northwestern State becomes just the 15th 14-seed to win a first-round game since 1985 (88 games). The Demons will meet the sixth-seeded Mountaineers on Sunday, trying to become just the third 14-seed to win a second round game.

Cleveland State was the first to do it in 1986, with Chattanooga turning the trick in 1997. However, both of those schools lost their Sweet 16 games, Cleveland State to Navy (71-70) and Chattanooga to Providence (71-65). West Va opened as a 6 1/2-point favorite.

Bradley’s upset of Kansas makes the Braves the 18th 13-seed to win a first round game. Like with Northwestern State, history is not on Bradley’s side when the Braves take on No. 5 Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Of the previous 17 13-seeds to have won in the first round, only Richmond (1988), Valparaiso (1998) and Oklahoma (1999) have won their second round games. All three lost their Sweet 16 games. Pittsburgh opened as a 4 1/2-point favorite.

The NCAA defines a major upset as the winner being seeded five or more places beneath the loser. Using that definition, the first round produced six major upsets. Joining Northwestern State and Bradley were 12-seeds Montana and Texas A&M beating five-seeds Nevada and Syracuse on Thursday plus 11-seeds Wisconsin-Milwaukee and George Mason beating six-seeds Oklahoma (Thursday) and Michigan State (Friday).

A 12-seed has now beaten a five-seed in 20 of the last 23 years, with 14 advancing to the Sweet 16 (Wisconsin-Milwaukee did it last year). However, just one of those 14 teams won its Sweet 16 game, Missouri in 2002. The Tigers lost to Oklahoma 81-75 that year, in the regional finals.

Texas A&M and Wisconsin-Milwaukee both play Saturday, facing four-seeds LSU and Florida. LSU is favored by five points over A&M and Florida is favored by seven points over Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

The Big East, which sent a record eight teams to the tournament this year, redeemed itself on Friday. Big East teams were 0-3 on Thursday but came back to win all five Friday games (3-2 ATS). The Big-10 saw its teams go 3-3 (2-4 ATS) through the first two days and the SEC went 5-1 (4-2 ATS).

The ACC was a perfect 4-0 in the first round (although just 2-2 ATS), while the Pac-10 went 3-1 (3-1 ATS) and the Big-12 went 2-2 (1-3 ATS). The MVC had four schools in this year’s tourney (the most-ever) and saw its teams go 2-2 SU and ATS.

Air Force and Bradley (both 13-seeds) plus Texas A&M and Utah State (both 12-seeds) were considered the “last teams in”, as they were the lowest-seeded at-large teams. Bradley and A&M both won their first round games and neither Air Force nor Utah State embarrassed themselves in losses to Illinois and Washington.

There also seemed to be many who questioned whether Hofstra (at 24-6 the Pride had the most wins of any team not invited!) not George Mason (11-seed), should have the CAA’s at-large school. The Patriots did just fine Friday night, knocking off sixth-seeded Michigan State.

Closing note

Duke may not win this year’s tournament, as too often the Blue Devils look like a two-man team. In fact, Redick and Williams accounted for 58 of the team’s 70 points in the Blue Devils’ 70-54 opening-game win over Southern. However, Coach K has a pretty good track record. His win on Friday gives him 67 NCAA wins, extending his NCAA record (Dean Smith won 65). The closest active coaches to him are Lute Olson with 47 and Roy Williams with 42 (entering the weekend).

If Duke were to beat George Washington on Saturday (Dookies are favored by around 10 points!), it would clinch Duke’s ninth consecutive Sweet 16 appearance. The next longest active streak is Illinois, which has made two straight Sweet 16 appearances! Illinois can make it three straight by beating Washington on Saturday. Watch out Mike, the Illini program is gaining on you!

Larry Ness is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Larry_Ness.htm

The Importance of Poker Position

October 14th, 2007

Texas Holdem is all about people and position. All rounded holdem players agree that position in no limit texas holdem is fundamentally important. Playing your hole cards in late position can be much more profitable than in early poker position. The reason because much more information is gathered before acting.

For example, I was playing a $1-$2 no limit cash game at a local spot. I limped in with 2, 9 unsuited (a terrible hand) on the dealer button, just to see some action. Flop came down A-A-4. A player in early position made a $15 bet. Two players fold and it was my turn to act. I should have folded, but his play seemed a bit off. I identified this player as a weak-tight player earlier, and typically if he had the best hand he would just check. I thought, ‘if he held trips, why would he raise so early instead of checking and try to trap other players.’ I didn’t put him on an Ace this time, so I called.

The turn came down with a 7, making it A-A-4-7. My opponent made another bet of $20. I hesitated a bit, but made a split decision to reraise another $30 on top of his $20. He folds and I take the pot down.

Playing late position gives you an idea where you stand by observing how players react and bet. On the other hand, players at early position may us their poker position to check-raise the late positioned aggressors and trap them later at the end. In Texas Holdem, both ends, late and early should be played cautiously regardless.

http://www.TexasHoldem-Academy.com